Here’s the latest First Read: Campaign Confidential – bringing you the nitty-gritty on New York's 2023 campaigns, the dirt on 2024 and the juiciest gossip for 2025.

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Embattled Republican Rep. George Santos maintains that he has no plans on resigning and has announced his reelection campaign – but he might not get a choice in leaving office. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said Tuesday he wants the Ethics Committee to “move rapidly” on a resolution to expel Santos from Congress. And even if that’s a gambit to slow down Democrats’ charge? Pressure is only building to get the Long Island Republican out of office after he pleaded not guilty to 13 counts related to scamming donors, and the country.

And if Congress and Santos don’t act first this term, U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of New York Breon Peace might. Former state Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos, for example, was indicted in May 2015 and convicted that December. Unlike the state Legislature, a member of Congress does not automatically forfeit their seat after a felony conviction (see: Skelos, Sheldon Silver, John Sampson, etc.) but it would certainly increase the pressure further, even with Republicans’ slim majority in the House.

That is to say: a special election in the 3rd Congressional District seems more likely than ever. And a lot has changed since January, the last time City & State looked at who was eyeing Santos’ seat. New candidates have filed. Former Rep. Tom Suozzi got a new job. Nassau County Legislator Josh Lafazan seems to be running even though he said he wouldn’t. And Nassau County Democratic Party Chair Jay Jacobs, somehow, remains the most powerful figure in the race.

Read more about who is in position to win, and who else is trying.

That’s New York City Mayor Eric Adams’ favorability rating with city voters, according to a Siena College poll released yesterday. Some 49% have a favorable opinion of him, 35% unfavorable and 16% didn’t know. That’s a heck of a lot better than the negative 6-point approval rating that Quinnipiac University found in January. The questions were worded differently, and the Siena poll was statewide, so the New York City resident subcategory can be expected to have a higher margin of error, but that didn’t stop Adams political adviser Evan Thies from putting out a rare press release touting the good numbers, and highlighting that more Black, Latino and lower-income voters statewide feel favorably about the mayor.

Statewide, he’s 5 points underwater, sure, but he’s not running for governor – yet – and this looked good for Team Adams after a somewhat embarrassing “let’s see other people” from Team Biden and a nearly $20,000 fine for Adams’ messy transition committee. Another bright spot for Adams’ politics? The Black establishment favorite who also refers to herself in the third person, Cherelle Parker, won the Democratic mayoral primary in Philadelphia, ending a big city progressive miniwave that Adams swore meant nothing to him. Adams’ 2025 reelection is two years away, and leftists are already talking about who will run.

New York City Council Member Kristin Richardson Jordan might have announced she’s dropping her reelection bid in comic sans, but there’s nothing funny about it for her three opponents. Her Black radical socialist ally in the City Council, Charles Barron, shared his thoughts on the “damn shame” with City & State, but we also asked the other three District 9 campaigns in Harlem how this changes their strategy.

“Yusef Salaam is the candidate best positioned to coalesce her progressive support,” read a memo from his campaign this morning. Salaam now has the progressive, anti-establishment lane all to himself – which KRJ rode to victory with ranked-choice voting in 2021. And Salaam spokesperson Eric Koch noted there’s still time to get that message out in the field. Assembly Member Al Taylor’s consultant Albert Suh said their campaign remains the same, adding that he’s “always been the most active candidate in the community (and) his positions best reflect the community.” Does it make a difference for Assembly Member Inez Dickens? “Absolutely not. My strategy will remain the same,” said consultant Tyquana Henderson-Rivers. “Because in my view, a KRJ voter was not an Inez Dickens voter.”

Richardson Jordan leaving may not change much of the endorsement game for Dickens or Taylor, since Henderson-Rivers noted that many typical mainstream endorsers who stayed out of this race weren’t necessarily doing so out of deference to KRJ, but because they didn’t want to pick between two sitting state legislators.

After just seven months leading the New York City Campaign Finance Board, Beth Rotman is resigning as executive director. The press release cited an ailing family member, but a board insider said it’s also due to a clash of personalities at the oversight agency. Amy Loprest had led the board for 16 years before retiring last year, and she’s back again in an interim capacity, suggesting some folks there might have yearned for the good old days. 

It’s just a coincidence that the news came the day after the board slapped Mayor Eric Adams’ transition committee with a penalty, the insider said. Rotman leaving wasn’t due to external pressure, but an internal thing – and Adams has only appointed one of the five board members anyway.

“It is a little bit of a weird time to leave,” said one experienced political consultant, just as the board is giving out matching funds and mailing voter guides. “If you were planning to leave you would wait until June 28.” But for candidates? “I don’t think it should have much impact. Most of the work is done by functionaries, and they’ll still do what they do.”

Democrat Zak Malamed told City & State he raised a whopping $225,000 in the first 24 hours after launching his campaign for the 3rd Congressional District – proving that co-founding a national fundraising platform really helps when it comes time to raise money for yourself. Malamed, 29, is a first-time candidate who seized the anti-Santos spirit Monday to announce a campaign for the Republican scammer’s district. And thanks to his PAC The Next 50, he’s got friends in high places like California Rep. Ro Khanna and Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, who each boosted his campaign on Twitter. 

Of course, the 3rd District already had a well-funded whiz kid Democrat in Josh Lafazan, who said he has raised $400,000 in four months. But Lafazan had a lot of dough in 2022 too – plus crypto super PAC funding – and he finished a distant third. Time may tell if Malamed can turn national money into local votes, but he’s off to a strong start, noting that $225,000 was more than Santos raised in his entire first quarter last cycle. “Our grassroots fundraising says it all,” Malamed said in a statement shared first with City & State. “New Yorkers want to replace George Santos with a fresh face, not more of the same.”

The citywide LGBTQ+ political clubs are split on City Council District 9, with the Stonewall Democratic Club of New York City endorsing Yusef Salaam and the Jim Owles Liberal Democratic Club backing Inez Dickens. Both endorsed Kristin Richardson Jordan last term, and both snubbed her this year before she dropped out … Jim Owles Liberal Democratic Club also endorsed a bunch of Democratic council incumbents and judicial candidates, and club President Allen Roskoff said he asked candidates at the endorsement interviews “on a scale of 1 to 10, would you rate Eric Adams a one or a two?” … Stonewall Democrats also endorsed Christopher Bae in Council District 19, as did state Sen. John Liu over his former opponent for state Senate, Tony Avella … State Attorney General Letitia James endorsed Lynn Schulman in Council District 29 … A bunch of council members ranging from progressive Shekar Krishnan to conservative Bob Holden endorsed Melinda Katz for Queens district attorney, which is pretty impressive, one consultant quipped, “in a race where there other guy (George Grasso) is basically running as Bob Holden.”

Team Laura Gillen to Team … USA? City & State broke the news that Sarah Hughes, the Olympic gold medal-winning figure skater turned corporate lawyer, is running for the 4th Congressional District. And Threshold Group Partner Max Kramer was quoted in Newsday repping her campaign, even though last year, he and the firm worked for Democratic contender Gillen in that same district. Gillen just announced she’s running again herself, with the winner of that primary taking on first-year GOP Rep. Anthony D’Esposito … Others working on Hughes’ yet-to-launch campaign include Anson Kaye of GMMB for television, Michael Bocian of GBAO for polling and Nicole Cairns of Foglamp for digital fundraising.

City Council District 26 in western Queens, including the neighborhoods of Long Island City, Sunnyside and Woodside

Incumbent: Julie Won

2020 census demographics: 32% Asian, 30% Hispanic, 27% white, 7% Black

2021 Democratic primary results 

2021 Democratic primary election results (first round): Won: 18.5%, Amit Bagga: 17.5%, Brent O’Leary: 9.8%, Julia Forman: 8.5%, Denise Keehan-Smith: 6.8%, Ebony Young: 6.4%, Badrun Khan: 5.8%, Hailie Kim: 5.1%, Jonathan Bailey: 4.5%, Emily Sharpe: 3.5%, Glennis Gomez: 3.5%, Jesse Laymon: 3.2%, Steven Raga: 3.1%, Lorenzo Brea: 2%, Sultan Al Maruf: 1.6% 

2021 general election results: Won (D): 77%, Marvin Jeffcoat (Republican, Conservative): 22%

Who’s running: Julie Won (D, Working Families Party), Hailie Kim (D), Marvin Jeffcoat (R)

Julie Won defeated 14 other candidates in the 2021 primary, despite having limited institutional support from elected officials and unions. Many predicted she’d face a tough race again, especially after bruising rezoning negotiations, possibly against second-place finisher Amit Bagga, who now works for Gov. Kathy Hochul. Instead? Hailie Kim, who is Korean like Won and got eighth place in the 2021 primary, is gearing up for a one-on-one race this year. Kim, who was an organizer at MinKwon Center for Community Action, has an energetic campaign with solid fundraising, but Won’s power of incumbency may be hard to overcome. And Republican Marvin Jeffcoat has no shot in his second attempt at the general election in this deep-blue district.

Thanks for reading City & State NY’s Campaign Confidential newsletter, where City Hall Bureau Chief Jeff Coltin is covering the biggest races in New York, from the City Council to district attorneys, and looking ahead to the 2024 elections.

Once a week, on Wednesdays.